Board · Wed, Oct 14 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Kennesaw State
1–4 · Ours #108Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–27Our projected score
Missouri State
1–4 · Ours #128Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.KENN 53%
KENN 53%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.KENN −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.1 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −3
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.52oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.5 · opened 51.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.MOST +3.5-122 FanDuel54% to cover · -1.5% EV
MOST +3.5-122 FanDuel54% to cover · -1.5% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Rickie CollinsJunior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1069th
- Comp %
- 67.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Skyler LocklearSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0197th
- Comp %
- 65.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Missouri Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseKennesaw State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | +0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.12 | 107th |
| 104th | 40.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 45.9% | 118th |
| 75th | +0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.24 | 121st |
| 46th | +0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 67th |
| 123rd | 9.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.8% | 75th |
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMissouri State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | +0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.12 | 106th |
| 55th | 44.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 47.6% | 128th |
| 81st | +0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.20 | 110th |
| 38th | +0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 81st |
| 105th | 11.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.1% | 115th |
Team stats
| Missouri StateMOST | Kennesaw StateKENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.2120th | −0.491st |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −6.8133rd | −3.7121st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 40%120th | 40%123rd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.5637th | 4.6333rd |
| Time of possession | 25:36121st | 26:30108th |
| Plays per game | 62103rd | 6579th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 7 – 11 | 8 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.0%98th | 6.8%121st |
Season so far
Kennesaw State1–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5L
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3Missouri State1–4 · 100th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is