Week 6 report · Wed, Oct 7 · 2026 Week 6
New Mexico State
2–4 · Ours #117 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–22FinalWe had NMSU 22 – FIU 29
Florida International
3–2 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FIU 67%FIU won
FIU 67%FIU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FIU −5.FIU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.3 · FIU covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.7.46.5final 25 · under by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FIU −5.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
FIU −5.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Adam Damante9/22 · 104 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.475th pct
- Comp %
- 40.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q4 by Trey Hedden
JJ Kohl12/21 · 115 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2914th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico Stateoffense | Played like FIU +8.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida International | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 34.5%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.5%▲0.9 | 74th |
| 6th | −0.40▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.27 | 95th |
| 7th | −0.53▼0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.52 | 93rd |
| 17th | −0.23▼0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▼0.03 | 83rd |
| 16th | 2▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 84th |
| Florida Internationaloffense | defenseNew Mexico State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 37.9%▲0.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.9%▲4.4 | 63rd |
| 12th | −0.25▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.37 | 88th |
| 15th | −0.33▼0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.62 | 85th |
| 19th | −0.20▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.16 | 81st |
| 41st | 1▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Florida InternationalFIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2527th | Own 3993rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts52nd | +4.1 pts100th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5853rd | 6675th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.331st | +7.370th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FIU +12.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.8, kicking +2.7, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | −12.26th | +12.294th |
Season so far
New Mexico State2–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2Lat Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7Florida International3–2 · 123rd-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
Wvs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 7, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is