Board · Tue, Oct 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Delaware
2–3 · Ours #116Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–25Our projected score
Middle Tennessee
2–3 · Ours #129Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.DEL 62%
DEL 62%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.DEL −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.6 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −2.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 54.9 · opened 48.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.DEL −1.5-105 DraftKings50% to cover · -1.9% EV
DEL −1.5-105 DraftKings50% to cover · -1.9% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
EJ Archield Jr.Freshman · 1 start this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.25
- Comp %
- 52.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
New starter last game
Roman GaglianoSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0486th
- Comp %
- 56.4
- TD
- 9
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseDelaware | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95th | +0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.07 | 93rd |
| 108th | 39.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 44.2% | 103rd |
| 89th | +0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.06 | 76th |
| 102nd | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.09 | 96th |
| 111th | 10.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.5% | 69th |
| Delawareoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseMiddle Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.15 | 116th |
| 107th | 39.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 48.0% | 129th |
| 91st | +0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.08 | 84th |
| 112th | −0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.21 | 127th |
| 85th | 12.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 13.2% | 97th |
Team stats
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | DelawareDEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.7118th | +1.153rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.278th | −2.5102nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 48%88th | 35%133rd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9579th | 4.5039th |
| Time of possession | 26:36105th | 25:06123rd |
| Plays per game | 56134th | 6394th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +1 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 4 – 5 | 10 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 5.7%134th | 10.0%46th |
Season so far
Delaware2–3 · 77th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
L
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5W
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5L
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameL
vs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7Middle Tennessee2–3 · 110th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is