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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at MTSU · Tue, Oct 13 · 7:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Delaware

2–3 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−10.8
Rank
116
Résumé
104
Projected wins
5.8▲ 1.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3MerrimackMerrimackDEL −28.0DEL −31.5W 42–782
Sat, Sep 129/12at VanderbiltVANDEL +25.5DEL +20.5L 26–3540DEL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Coastal CarolinaCCUDEL −7.7DEL −5.0W 22–1450CCU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at VirginiaUVADEL +16.7DEL +22.0L 3–4214DEL · L
Fri, Oct 210/2LibertyLIBDEL +4.4DEL +7.0L 14–3039DEL · L
Tue, Oct 1310/13at Middle TennesseeMTSUDEL −4.6DEL −1.0DEL −1.5Pass
Tue, Oct 2010/20Missouri StateMOSTDEL −8.8—wk 8
Tue, Oct 2710/27at Western KentuckyWKUDEL +1.2—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Kennesaw StateKENNDEL −1.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Florida InternationalFIUDEL PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at New Mexico StateNMSUDEL −1.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Jacksonville StateJXSTDEL +2.1—wk 13

Model on DEL games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.82–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)34%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01109th
Success rate39.8%107th
Pass EPA+0.0391st
Rush EPA−0.05112th
Explosive rate12.2%85th
Quality-drive rate35.3%133rd
Points per quality drive4.539th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0793rd
Success allowed44.2%103rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0676th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0996th
Explosive allowed11.5%69th
Havoc rate10.0%46th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.153rd
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −5.0
Field position margin−2.5 yd102nd
Hidden points / game−1.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.22.2 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 1–4
Rush rate over expected−6.7%119th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−10.8116th
Schedule played−0.377th
Schedule remaining−9.7123rd
Full schedule−6.3117th
Pregame expected wins1.5of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 116th · −10.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUDELgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Delawareoff −0.01 109thdef +0.07 allowed · 93rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.