Board · Wed, Oct 14 · 8:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Western Kentucky
2–4 · Ours #127Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–24Our projected score
Sam Houston
1–4 · Ours #123Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.WKU 58%
WKU 58%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.WKU −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −1.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.53oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.0 · opened 52.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.WKU −1.5-106 FanDuel51% to cover · -0.1% EV
WKU −1.5-106 FanDuel51% to cover · -0.1% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Brock GlennJunior · 3 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.02106th
- Comp %
- 54.2
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
New starter last game
Landyn LockeSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0873rd
- Comp %
- 66.3
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Sam Houstonoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseWestern Kentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114th | −0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.08 | 97th |
| 74th | 42.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 42.6% | 88th |
| 83rd | +0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.02 | 69th |
| 134th | −0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.15 | 110th |
| 117th | 10.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.3% | 118th |
| Western Kentuckyoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSam Houston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125th | −0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.04 | 33rd |
| 119th | 38.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 42.0% | 85th |
| 100th | 0.00 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.32 | 5th |
| 130th | −0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.18 | 123rd |
| 113th | 10.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 13.9% | 111th |
Team stats
| Sam HoustonSHSU | Western KentuckyWKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.0119th | −0.389th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.493rd | −6.1131st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 39%125th | 41%117th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.43106th | 2.59133rd |
| Time of possession | 31:3620th | 29:5447th |
| Plays per game | 6759th | 7119th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −1 | −2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 7 – 6 | 8 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 11.3%31st | 7.9%99th |
Season so far
Western Kentucky2–4 · 46th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2W
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1Sam Houston1–4 · 57th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5L
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is