Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Louisiana Tech
3–2 · Ours #97Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–21Our projected score
UL Monroe
0–5 · Ours #137Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.LT 80%
LT 80%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.LT −15oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.5 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −14.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.57oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.0 · opened 53.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.ULM +15.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -1.8% EV
ULM +15.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -1.8% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Blake BakerJunior · 3 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1456th
- Comp %
- 67.9
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
New starter last game
Aidan ArmentaSenior · 3 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3024th
- Comp %
- 64.5
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| UL Monroeoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseLouisiana Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.03 | 64th |
| 65th | 43.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.2% | 42nd |
| 71st | +0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.01 | 57th |
| 33rd | +0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 82nd |
| 74th | 12.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 15.4% | 128th |
| Louisiana Techoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseUL Monroe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | +0.14 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.24 | 134th |
| 97th | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 51.5% | 137th |
| 61st | +0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.42 | 138th |
| 39th | +0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 102nd |
| 15th | 15.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 15.2% | 125th |
Team stats
| UL MonroeULM | Louisiana TechLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −4.0132nd | −3.8130th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −3.7119th | −0.886th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 43%112th | 54%61st |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.1761st | 3.8984th |
| Time of possession | 30:1842nd | 24:36126th |
| Plays per game | 6756th | 6486th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −10 | +1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 1 | 11 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 7.3%111th | 13.2%8th |
Season so far
Louisiana Tech3–2 · 20th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
L
at LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35L
at Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20W
vs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1W
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3UL Monroe0–5 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5L
at UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
L
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5L
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is