Board · Tue, Oct 20 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 8Week 8 report
South Alabama
4–2 · Ours #94Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–31Our projected score
Marshall
3–3 · Ours #126Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.USA 57%
USA 57%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. USA −2.8
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 64.6
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Marshalloffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSouth Alabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.38 | 138th |
| 56th | 44.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 51.1% | 136th |
| 78th | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.37 | 136th |
| 25th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.39 | 138th |
| 64th | 13.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 16.2% | 133rd |
| South Alabamaoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMarshall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.20 | 127th |
| 57th | 44.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 44.4% | 104th |
| 8th | +0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.31 | 133rd |
| 80th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.08 | 89th |
| 76th | 12.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.0% | 113th |
Team stats
| MarshallMRSH | South AlabamaUSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.178th | +3.712th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.581st | +4.729th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 52%74th | 58%31st |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.17119th | 4.6930th |
| Time of possession | 25:54116th | 29:0663rd |
| Plays per game | 6941st | 7125th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −3 | +9 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 14 – 11 | 4 – 13 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 7.5%105th | 8.1%93rd |
Season so far
South Alabama4–2 · 116th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
L
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5W
vs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7L
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5W
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5W
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3Marshall3–3 · 110th-hardest schedule
L
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5W
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13W
at Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
L
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5L
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is