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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Akron

4–7 FBS · Mid-American · 2025
Rating
−13.9
Rank
127
Résumé
125
Our picks
4–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.1expected wins · finished 4–7
Bowl (6+)15%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

4–7 against 4.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 3.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 127thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.1
4–7 vs 4.1
One-score games flipped
3–8
what-if record
Turnover margin
−5
expected +2.0

Luck: +0.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 129th · −14.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.5115th
Offense play value−5.4129th
Defense efficiency−1.6103rd
Defense play value−2.7107th
Drive finishing−1.8129th
Field position−0.8106th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.06th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.0 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−4.5
136th
Havoc rate
12.4%
18th
Rush rate over expected
−1.8%
79th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceAKRgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Akronoff −0.05 107thdef −0.01 47th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–4
Pick was the dog2–3
Home / away side3–5 / 1–2
Average gap to the close+3.2 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−9.4136th
Full season−9.4136th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28WyomingAKR +0.9+8.5L 0–1030LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at NebraskaAKR +27.3+33.5L 0–6816LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at UABAKR +14.3+12.5L 28–3155LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at ToledoAKR +22.2+21.5L 3–453WIN
Sat, Oct 4Central MichiganAKR +1.4+7.0W 28–2274WIN
Sat, Oct 11Miami (OH)AKR +12.3+11.5L 7–2034WIN
Sat, Oct 18at Ball StateAKR −0.6−2.5L 28–4243WIN
Sat, Oct 25at BuffaloAKR +13.3+10.0W 24–1662LOSS
Tue, Nov 4MassachusettsAKR −10.6−12.5W 44–1073LOSS
Tue, Nov 11Kent StateAKR −9.2−7.5L 35–4240LOSS
Tue, Nov 18at Bowling GreenAKR +5.9+2.5W 19–1646LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.