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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Miami (OH)

6–7 FBS · Mid-American · 2025
Rating
−3.6
Rank
82
Résumé
92
Our picks
7–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.3expected wins · finished 6–7
Bowl (6+)70%
9+ wins9%
11+ wins0%

6–7 against 6.3 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 82ndFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
0–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.3
6–7 vs 6.3
One-score games flipped
8–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
+3
expected +4.5

Luck: −0.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 94th · −6.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.4112th
Offense play value−4.1117th
Defense efficiency−0.161st
Defense play value+0.262nd
Drive finishing−0.7104th
Field position+0.726th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.6 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.8
39th
Havoc rate
11.6%
47th
Rush rate over expected
+1.4%
48th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMichigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceM-OHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Miami (OH)off −0.01 90thdef +0.01 52nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite6–0
Pick was the dog1–6
Home / away side3–2 / 4–4
Average gap to the close+3.2 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−3.8103rd
Full season−3.8103rd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28at WisconsinM-OH +11.3+17.5L 0–1731WIN
Sat, Sep 6at RutgersM-OH +14.4+15.5L 17–4533LOSS
Sat, Sep 20UNLVM-OH +10.6+2.5L 38–4154WIN
Sat, Oct 4at Northern IllinoisM-OH −2.8−4.5W 25–1468LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at AkronM-OH −12.3−11.5W 20–766WIN
Sat, Oct 18Eastern MichiganM-OH −10.8−12.5W 44–3075LOSS
Sat, Oct 25Western MichiganM-OH −8.5−2.5W 26–1762WIN
Tue, Nov 4at OhioM-OH +11.9+2.5L 20–2438WIN
Wed, Nov 12ToledoM-OH +4.9+5.5L 3–2421LOSS
Wed, Nov 19at BuffaloM-OH −2.6−2.5W 37–2055WIN
Sat, Nov 29Ball StateM-OH −20.4−16.5W 45–2494WIN
Sat, Dec 6at Western MichiganM-OH +0.6+2.5L 13–2332LOSS
Sat, Dec 27at Fresno StateM-OH +4.8+5.5L 3–1831LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.