LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Buffalo

4–7 FBS · Mid-American · 2025
Rating
−10.2
Rank
112
Résumé
120
Our picks
3–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.3expected wins · finished 4–7
Bowl (6+)70%
9+ wins5%
11+ wins0%

4–7 against 6.3 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.1.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 112thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−2.3
4–7 vs 6.3
One-score games flipped
5–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
−6
expected −6.0

Luck: −0.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 116th · −9.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−3.3122nd
Offense play value−5.4128th
Defense efficiency−0.160th
Defense play value−0.269th
Drive finishing−1.0114th
Field position+0.062nd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0115th
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −2.6 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.5
82nd
Havoc rate
12.3%
21st
Rush rate over expected
−5.6%
111th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceBUFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Buffalooff −0.11 120thdef +0.02 54th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
3–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–6
Pick was the dog2–1
Home / away side1–4 / 2–3
Average gap to the close+2.6 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−8.6134th
Full season−8.6134th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28at MinnesotaBUF +16.6+16.5L 10–2330LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at Kent StateBUF −18.9−23.5W 31–2841WIN
Sat, Sep 20TroyBUF PK−5.5L 17–2157WIN
Sat, Sep 27UConnBUF +4.7+3.0L 17–2040PUSH
Sat, Oct 4Eastern MichiganBUF −10.6−9.5W 31–3039LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at MassachusettsBUF −17.3−16.5W 28–2147LOSS
Sat, Oct 25AkronBUF −13.3−10.0L 16–2438LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at Bowling GreenBUF +3.5+2.5W 28–386LOSS
Wed, Nov 12at Central MichiganBUF −1.3+2.5L 19–3837LOSS
Wed, Nov 19Miami (OH)BUF +2.6+2.5L 20–3746WIN
Fri, Nov 28OhioBUF +12.9+7.0L 26–3131LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.