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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Toledo

7–5 FBS · Mid-American · 2025
Rating
+8.5
Rank
27
Résumé
73
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.5expected wins · finished 7–5
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins52%
11+ wins7%

7–5 against 8.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.3.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 27thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
0–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.5
7–5 vs 8.5
One-score games flipped
11–1
what-if record
Turnover margin
+8
expected +1.0

Luck: −0.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 20th · +10.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.850th
Offense play value+0.459th
Defense efficiency+3.514th
Defense play value+6.05th
Drive finishing−0.278th
Field position+0.537th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.5 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−2.4
127th
Havoc rate
14.3%
6th
Rush rate over expected
−1.9%
80th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTOLgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Toledooff +0.00 82nddef −0.25 2nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–3
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side3–2 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+1.4 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.1118th
Full season−5.1118th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at KentuckyTOL +8.0+10.0L 16–2437WIN
Sat, Sep 6Western KentuckyTOL −6.8−7.5W 45–2195LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at Western MichiganTOL −13.8−13.5L 13–1451LOSS
Sat, Sep 27AkronTOL −22.2−21.5W 45–398WIN
Sat, Oct 11at Bowling GreenTOL −7.0−10.5L 23–2858WIN
Sat, Oct 18Kent StateTOL −26.3−25.5W 45–1075WIN
Sat, Oct 25at Washington StateTOL −2.1−1.5L 7–2831LOSS
Wed, Nov 5Northern IllinoisTOL −11.1−14.5W 42–396LOSS
Wed, Nov 12at Miami (OH)TOL −4.9−5.5W 24–379LOSS
Sat, Nov 22Ball StateTOL −29.7−29.5W 38–964LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at Central MichiganTOL −12.1−11.5W 21–378WIN
Tue, Dec 23at LouisvilleTOL +9.2+12.5L 22–2733WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.