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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Central Michigan

6–6 FBS · Mid-American · 2025
Rating
−6.3
Rank
95
Résumé
96
Our picks
7–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.2expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)18%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

6–6 against 4.2 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 95thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.8
6–6 vs 4.2
One-score games flipped
7–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
+6
expected +4.5

Luck: +0.4 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 96th · −6.5 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.8102nd
Offense play value−3.3112th
Defense efficiency−1.083rd
Defense play value+0.360th
Drive finishing−0.173rd
Field position−0.591st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.8 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.3
112th
Havoc rate
11.9%
35th
Rush rate over expected
+13.5%
7th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceCMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Central Michiganoff −0.03 99thdef −0.01 44th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite5–2
Pick was the dog2–3
Home / away side4–2 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+3.7 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.8123rd
Full season−5.8123rd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29at San José StateCMU +17.1+11.5W 16–1456LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at PittsburghCMU +21.9+21.5L 17–4526WIN
Sat, Sep 13at MichiganCMU +39.5+27.5L 3–634WIN
Sat, Sep 27Eastern MichiganCMU +2.0−3.0W 24–1369LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at AkronCMU −1.4−7.0L 22–2826WIN
Sat, Oct 18at Bowling GreenCMU +11.2+3.0W 27–681LOSS
Sat, Oct 25MassachusettsCMU −15.2−16.5W 38–1391LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at Western MichiganCMU +5.7+6.0L 21–2438WIN
Wed, Nov 12BuffaloCMU +1.3−2.5W 38–1963LOSS
Wed, Nov 19at Kent StateCMU −8.0−7.5W 28–1668WIN
Sat, Nov 29ToledoCMU +12.1+11.5L 3–2123WIN
Fri, Dec 26at NorthwesternCMU +14.7+13.5L 7–3423WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.