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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Tulsa

3–8 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
−11.6
Rank
117
Résumé
119
Our picks
6–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
2.5expected wins · finished 3–8
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

3–8 against 2.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 3.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 117thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.5
3–8 vs 2.5
One-score games flipped
4–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−10
expected −6.5

Luck: −0.7 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 114th · −9.6 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.6100th
Offense play value−2.8106th
Defense efficiency−1.288th
Defense play value−1.689th
Drive finishing−1.5124th
Field position−0.9114th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.7 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.9
101st
Havoc rate
7.9%
123rd
Rush rate over expected
+2.4%
38th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTLSAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Tulsaoff −0.06 110thdef +0.09 91st

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–4
Pick was the dog2–1
Home / away side3–3 / 3–2
Average gap to the close+5.6 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−4.6112th
Full season−4.6112th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at New Mexico StateTLSA +4.4−3.5L 14–2140WIN
Sat, Sep 13NavyTLSA +22.1+14.0L 23–4218WIN
Fri, Sep 19at Oklahoma StateTLSA +16.3+10.0W 19–1270LOSS
Sat, Sep 27TulaneTLSA +17.2+14.5L 14–3126WIN
Sat, Oct 4at MemphisTLSA +23.1+21.0L 7–4522WIN
Thu, Oct 16at East CarolinaTLSA +21.6+16.5L 27–4118LOSS
Sat, Oct 25TempleTLSA +10.1+4.5L 37–3856LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at Florida AtlanticTLSA +5.0+4.5L 21–4017WIN
Sat, Nov 15Oregon StateTLSA +4.6−1.5W 31–1470LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at ArmyTLSA +17.2+10.0W 26–2563LOSS
Sat, Nov 29UABTLSA PK−9.5L 24–3134WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.