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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Navy

10–2 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
+3.4
Rank
53
Résumé
17
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.7expected wins · finished 10–2
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins28%
11+ wins1%

10–2 against 7.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.4.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 53rdAP 23rdFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
5–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.3
10–2 vs 7.7
One-score games flipped
5–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
+4
expected −3.5

Luck: +2.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 23rd · +9.8 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+3.216th
Offense play value+5.97th
Defense efficiency+1.240th
Defense play value−1.587th
Drive finishing+0.444th
Field position+0.727th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.5
81st
Havoc rate
9.1%
107th
Rush rate over expected
+22.9%
4th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceNAVYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Navyoff +0.28 2nddef +0.08 88th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–4
Pick was the dog4–3
Home / away side1–4 / 4–3
Average gap to the close+3.8 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−0.776th
Full season−0.776th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6UABNAVY −14.8−22.5W 38–2458WIN
Sat, Sep 13at TulsaNAVY −22.1−14.0W 42–2382WIN
Sat, Sep 27RiceNAVY −14.8−14.0W 21–1390LOSS
Sat, Oct 4Air ForceNAVY −18.7−13.5W 34–3156LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at TempleNAVY −11.5−10.0W 32–3153LOSS
Sat, Oct 25Florida AtlanticNAVY −18.8−14.5W 42–3240LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at North TexasNAVY +4.5+6.5L 17–3153LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at Notre DameNAVY +28.4+30.5L 10–4938LOSS
Sat, Nov 15South FloridaNAVY +4.0+9.5W 41–3851WIN
Thu, Nov 27at MemphisNAVY +4.0+4.0W 28–1773WIN
Sat, Dec 13ArmyNAVY −5.8−6.5W 17–1671WIN
Fri, Jan 2at CincinnatiNAVY PK−7.5W 35–1377LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.