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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Tulane

11–3 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
+5.0
Rank
42
Résumé
21
Our picks
11–2
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.1expected wins · finished 11–3
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins40%
11+ wins6%

11–3 against 8.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 10.4.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 42ndAP 18thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
5–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.9
11–3 vs 8.1
One-score games flipped
6–8
what-if record
Turnover margin
+9
expected +6.5

Luck: +0.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 57th · +2.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.849th
Offense play value+0.363rd
Defense efficiency−1.390th
Defense play value+0.261st
Drive finishing−0.381st
Field position+2.53rd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.1 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+2.2
14th
Havoc rate
10.7%
69th
Rush rate over expected
0.0%
58th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTULNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Tulaneoff +0.16 14thdef +0.02 59th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
11–2against the closing line
Pick was the favorite5–1
Pick was the dog6–1
Home / away side7–2 / 4–0
Average gap to the close+4.3 pts
Our line beat the close11 of 14

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+0.670th
Full season+0.670th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30NorthwesternTULN −9.4−6.5W 23–379WIN
Sat, Sep 6at South AlabamaTULN −2.1−13.5W 33–3163WIN
Sat, Sep 13DukeTULN −9.6−1.5W 34–2778WIN
Sat, Sep 20at Ole MissTULN +17.1+12.5L 10–4519WIN
Sat, Sep 27at TulsaTULN −17.2−14.5W 31–1475WIN
Thu, Oct 9East CarolinaTULN −4.2−7.0W 26–1954PUSH
Sat, Oct 18ArmyTULN −6.7−10.0W 24–1752WIN
Thu, Oct 30at UTSATULN PK−6.0L 26–4811WIN
Fri, Nov 7at MemphisTULN +7.3+3.0W 38–3258LOSS
Sat, Nov 15Florida AtlanticTULN −15.6−16.5W 35–2460WIN
Sat, Nov 22at TempleTULN −6.0−7.5W 37–1370LOSS
Sat, Nov 29CharlotteTULN −24.6−30.5W 27–091WIN
Fri, Dec 5North TexasTULN −1.0+1.5W 34–2181WIN
Sat, Dec 20at Ole MissTULN +17.9+16.5L 10–4130WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.