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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Army

7–5 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
+1.7
Rank
59
Résumé
74
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.2expected wins · finished 7–5
Bowl (6+)68%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%

7–5 against 6.2 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 59thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.8
7–5 vs 6.2
One-score games flipped
7–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
+11
expected +7.5

Luck: +0.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 89th · −5.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.599th
Offense play value−1.087th
Defense efficiency−2.0111th
Defense play value−1.182nd
Drive finishing+0.162nd
Field position+0.155th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion−0.0116th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.9 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.2
26th
Havoc rate
6.7%
133rd
Rush rate over expected
+33.0%
1st · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisSouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceARMYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Armyoff +0.08 41stdef +0.06 83rd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–4
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side0–5 / 5–2
Average gap to the close+3.6 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−1.986th
Full season−1.986th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at Kansas StateARMY +26.3+16.5W 24–2163LOSS
Sat, Sep 20North TexasARMY +5.5+2.5L 38–4540WIN
Thu, Sep 25at East CarolinaARMY −1.5+3.5L 6–286LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at UABARMY −5.8−6.5W 31–1362LOSS
Sat, Oct 11CharlotteARMY −17.9−17.5W 24–784LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at TulaneARMY +6.7+10.0L 17–2448WIN
Sat, Nov 1at Air ForceARMY −1.6−1.5W 20–1754WIN
Sat, Nov 8TempleARMY −6.7−7.0W 14–1349WIN
Sat, Nov 22TulsaARMY −17.2−10.0L 25–2637LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at UTSAARMY +12.3+8.5W 27–2447LOSS
Sat, Dec 13at NavyARMY +5.8+6.5L 16–1729WIN
Sat, Dec 27UConnARMY +0.9−8.5W 41–1691LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.