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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

New Mexico State

3–8 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−11.6
Rank
118
Résumé
124
Our picks
7–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.3expected wins · finished 3–8
Bowl (6+)21%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

3–8 against 4.3 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.2.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 118thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.3
3–8 vs 4.3
One-score games flipped
5–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+2
expected −2.0

Luck: −2.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 118th · −10.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−3.7126th
Offense play value−4.5122nd
Defense efficiency−1.9107th
Defense play value+1.447th
Drive finishing−0.8112th
Field position−0.590th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0115th
Third-down conversion−0.0127th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.1 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.9
35th
Havoc rate
10.4%
81st
Rush rate over expected
−8.6%
126th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceNMSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
New Mexico Stateoff −0.08 114thdef +0.02 56th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–2
Pick was the dog5–2
Home / away side3–1 / 4–3
Average gap to the close+3.8 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.7121st
Full season−5.7121st

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6TulsaNMSU −4.4+3.5W 21–1460WIN
Sat, Sep 13at Louisiana TechNMSU +11.8+10.0L 14–4929WIN
Sat, Sep 27at New MexicoNMSU +11.5+16.5L 20–3826LOSS
Thu, Oct 2Sam HoustonNMSU +3.0+2.5W 37–1059LOSS
Tue, Oct 14at LibertyNMSU +7.2+10.5L 27–3079WIN
Wed, Oct 22Missouri StateNMSU +4.0+2.5L 17–2438WIN
Sat, Nov 1at Western KentuckyNMSU +3.4+7.5L 16–3526LOSS
Sat, Nov 8Kennesaw StateNMSU +3.0+11.5L 21–2463WIN
Sat, Nov 15at TennesseeNMSU +33.3+41.5L 9–424WIN
Sat, Nov 22at UTEPNMSU +3.6+4.0W 34–3140WIN
Sat, Nov 29Middle TennesseeNMSU −3.2−3.0L 24–3143LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.