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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

UConn

8–4 FBS · FBS Independents · 2025
Rating
−1.8
Rank
78
Résumé
75
Our picks
6–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.1expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins41%
11+ wins5%

8–4 against 8.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 78thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.1
8–4 vs 8.1
One-score games flipped
7–5
what-if record
Turnover margin
+18
expected +12.5

Luck: +0.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 79th · −3.2 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.848th
Offense play value+4.017th
Defense efficiency−4.4131st
Defense play value−4.4128th
Drive finishing+0.442nd
Field position+0.252nd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.11st
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +3.5 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.6
45th
Havoc rate
9.4%
99th
Rush rate over expected
−7.1%
119th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceCONNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UConnoff +0.18 12thdef +0.11 104th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–4
Pick was the dog2–1
Home / away side5–2 / 1–3
Average gap to the close+4.6 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−8.6134th
Full season−8.6134th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at SyracuseCONN +9.9+7.5L 20–2759LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at DelawareCONN −5.8−8.5L 41–4455WIN
Sat, Sep 20Ball StateCONN −22.3−21.0W 31–2567LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at BuffaloCONN −4.7−3.0W 20–1761PUSH
Sat, Oct 4Florida InternationalCONN −11.3−7.0W 51–1086WIN
Sat, Oct 18at Boston CollegeCONN −6.9−2.5W 38–2359WIN
Sat, Oct 25at RiceCONN −11.3−10.5L 34–3746LOSS
Sat, Nov 1UABCONN −17.6−10.0W 38–1942WIN
Sat, Nov 8DukeCONN −4.1+7.5W 37–3449WIN
Sat, Nov 15Air ForceCONN −11.4−7.5W 26–1664WIN
Sat, Nov 22at Florida AtlanticCONN −7.8−6.0W 48–4551LOSS
Sat, Dec 27at ArmyCONN −0.9+8.5L 16–419LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.