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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Ohio

8–4 FBS · Mid-American · 2025
Rating
+0.5
Rank
64
Résumé
62
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.8expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins62%
11+ wins9%

8–4 against 8.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 8.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 64thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
5–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.8
8–4 vs 8.8
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
−3
expected −2.5

Luck: +0.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 75th · −2.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.358th
Offense play value+0.753rd
Defense efficiency−1.498th
Defense play value−1.184th
Drive finishing−0.7104th
Field position−0.165th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.099th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.8 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−2.0
124th
Havoc rate
11.6%
46th
Rush rate over expected
+8.6%
16th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceOHIOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ohiooff +0.14 19thdef −0.06 27th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–5
Pick was the dog3–1
Home / away side5–2 / 1–4
Average gap to the close+7.3 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.9126th
Full season−5.9126th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28at RutgersOHIO +4.8+11.5L 31–3447WIN
Sat, Sep 6West VirginiaOHIO −5.2+3.5W 17–1064WIN
Sat, Sep 13at Ohio StateOHIO +33.0+28.5L 9–3723LOSS
Sat, Sep 27Bowling GreenOHIO −12.0−7.5W 35–2077WIN
Sat, Oct 4at Ball StateOHIO −21.9−14.0L 14–2058LOSS
Sat, Oct 18Northern IllinoisOHIO −17.1−10.5W 48–2193WIN
Sat, Oct 25at Eastern MichiganOHIO −17.4−11.5W 28–2158LOSS
Tue, Nov 4Miami (OH)OHIO −11.9−2.5W 24–2062WIN
Tue, Nov 11at Western MichiganOHIO −11.1+1.5L 13–1742LOSS
Tue, Nov 18MassachusettsOHIO −40.2−33.5W 42–1476LOSS
Fri, Nov 28at BuffaloOHIO −12.9−7.0W 31–2669LOSS
Tue, Dec 23UNLVOHIO −2.1+6.5W 17–1083WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.