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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Houston

9–3 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
+3.9
Rank
50
Résumé
29
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.5expected wins · finished 9–3
Bowl (6+)74%
9+ wins11%
11+ wins0%

9–3 against 6.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 50thAP 22ndFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
6–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.5
9–3 vs 6.5
One-score games flipped
4–8
what-if record
Turnover margin
+4
expected +3.5

Luck: +2.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 61st · +0.6 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.359th
Offense play value−1.392nd
Defense efficiency−0.774th
Defense play value+1.836th
Drive finishing+0.638th
Field position−0.165th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.9 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.8
120th
Havoc rate
12.1%
32nd
Rush rate over expected
+5.7%
24th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceHOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Houstonoff +0.01 79thdef −0.06 25th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–3
Pick was the dog3–5
Home / away side2–6 / 2–2
Average gap to the close+3.9 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−1.280th
Full season−1.280th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at RiceHOU −3.5−13.5W 35–967LOSS
Fri, Sep 12ColoradoHOU +4.6−4.0W 36–2070LOSS
Fri, Sep 26at Oregon StateHOU −9.5−11.5W 27–2437WIN
Sat, Oct 4Texas TechHOU +6.3+13.5L 11–3520LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at Oklahoma StateHOU −16.8−14.5W 39–1779WIN
Sat, Oct 18ArizonaHOU PK+1.5W 31–2853WIN
Sat, Oct 25at Arizona StateHOU +7.9+7.0W 24–1671LOSS
Sat, Nov 1West VirginiaHOU −15.5−13.5L 35–4543LOSS
Fri, Nov 7at UCFHOU −1.0+1.5W 30–2759WIN
Sat, Nov 22TCUHOU +1.3+1.5L 14–1752LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at BaylorHOU +5.0+2.5W 31–2446LOSS
Sat, Dec 27LSUHOU +5.6−1.5W 38–3552LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.