LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Colorado

3–9 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
−6.0
Rank
92
Résumé
105
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.3expected wins · finished 3–9
Bowl (6+)45%
9+ wins2%
11+ wins0%

3–9 against 5.3 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 92ndFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−2.3
3–9 vs 5.3
One-score games flipped
5–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
+7
expected −0.5

Luck: −1.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 78th · −3.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−3.5123rd
Offense play value−0.575th
Defense efficiency−0.468th
Defense play value+0.653rd
Drive finishing+0.926th
Field position−0.275th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.6
87th
Havoc rate
10.4%
80th
Rush rate over expected
+1.6%
46th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceCOLOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Coloradooff −0.06 108thdef +0.05 73rd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–1
Pick was the dog2–7
Home / away side3–3 / 1–5
Average gap to the close+4.1 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+4.037th
Full season+4.037th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29Georgia TechCOLO −2.0+4.0L 20–2741LOSS
Sat, Sep 6DelawareCOLO −21.3−23.5W 31–782LOSS
Fri, Sep 12at HoustonCOLO −4.6+4.0L 20–3631LOSS
Sat, Sep 20WyomingCOLO −18.1−12.5W 37–2087WIN
Sat, Sep 27BYUCOLO +2.6+6.5L 21–2436WIN
Sat, Oct 4at TCUCOLO +10.3+13.5L 21–3543LOSS
Sat, Oct 11Iowa StateCOLO +1.3+3.0W 24–1762WIN
Sat, Oct 25at UtahCOLO +9.8+14.0L 7–535LOSS
Sat, Nov 1ArizonaCOLO +1.4+4.0L 17–5211LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at West VirginiaCOLO −2.2+6.5L 22–2943LOSS
Sat, Nov 22Arizona StateCOLO +7.4+7.0L 17–4230WIN
Sat, Nov 29at Kansas StateCOLO +18.2+16.5L 14–2440LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.