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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

UCF

4–7 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
−4.1
Rank
86
Résumé
87
Our picks
8–3
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.6expected wins · finished 4–7
Bowl (6+)26%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

4–7 against 4.6 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.5.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 86thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.6
4–7 vs 4.6
One-score games flipped
4–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−8
expected −5.5

Luck: −0.5 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 67th · −1.0 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.190th
Offense play value−0.473rd
Defense efficiency−0.775th
Defense play value+2.529th
Drive finishing−0.8110th
Field position−0.696th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.8 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.8
99th
Havoc rate
10.4%
77th
Rush rate over expected
−2.6%
89th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUCFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UCFoff −0.09 115thdef +0.02 60th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–3against the closing line
Pick was the favorite6–2
Pick was the dog2–1
Home / away side5–2 / 3–1
Average gap to the close+2.8 pts
Our line beat the close8 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+0.967th
Full season+0.967th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28Jacksonville StateUCF −8.5−16.5W 17–1053WIN
Sat, Sep 20North CarolinaUCF −8.0−7.0W 34–988WIN
Sat, Sep 27at Kansas StateUCF +8.9+6.0L 20–3421WIN
Sat, Oct 4KansasUCF +6.1+4.0L 20–2729WIN
Sat, Oct 11at CincinnatiUCF +10.1+10.0L 11–2034LOSS
Sat, Oct 18West VirginiaUCF −9.1−6.5W 45–1381WIN
Sat, Nov 1at BaylorUCF +6.8+3.0L 3–3010WIN
Fri, Nov 7HoustonUCF +1.0−1.5L 27–3041WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Texas TechUCF +23.1+24.5L 9–4820LOSS
Sat, Nov 22Oklahoma StateUCF −16.8−13.5W 17–1478LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at BYUUCF +21.1+17.5L 21–4115WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.