LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

TCU

8–4 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
+6.6
Rank
35
Résumé
27
Our picks
6–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.1expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)84%
9+ wins20%
11+ wins1%

8–4 against 7.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 35thAP 25thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.9
8–4 vs 7.1
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
0
expected −1.5

Luck: +2.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 46th · +4.5 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.142nd
Offense play value+1.640th
Defense efficiency+0.749th
Defense play value+0.358th
Drive finishing+0.730th
Field position+0.158th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.099th
Third-down conversion−0.0116th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.7 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.8
94th
Havoc rate
11.2%
56th
Rush rate over expected
−5.6%
110th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaLouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTCUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
TCUoff +0.07 45thdef −0.01 48th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–2
Pick was the dog2–3
Home / away side4–1 / 2–4
Average gap to the close+1.6 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+2.847th
Full season+2.847th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Mon, Sep 1at North CarolinaTCU −5.6−3.0W 48–1478WIN
Sat, Sep 20SMUTCU −6.9−6.5W 35–2459WIN
Fri, Sep 26at Arizona StateTCU +0.8+3.0L 24–2733PUSH
Sat, Oct 4ColoradoTCU −10.3−13.5W 35–2157LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at Kansas StateTCU PK−3.0L 28–4126WIN
Sat, Oct 18BaylorTCU −4.1−3.5W 42–3681WIN
Sat, Oct 25at West VirginiaTCU −16.8−16.5W 23–1750LOSS
Sat, Nov 8Iowa StateTCU −5.6−7.5L 17–2057WIN
Sat, Nov 15at BYUTCU +1.7+3.0L 13–4451LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at HoustonTCU −1.3−1.5W 17–1449LOSS
Sat, Nov 29CincinnatiTCU −3.5−3.0W 45–2357WIN
Tue, Dec 30USCTCU +8.2+4.5W 30–2765LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.