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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Texas Tech

11–2 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
+23.8
Rank
3
Résumé
10
Our picks
3–10
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
9.7expected wins · finished 11–2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins81%
11+ wins30%

11–2 against 9.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 11.3.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 3rdAP 7thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
0–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.3
11–2 vs 9.7
One-score games flipped
12–1
what-if record
Turnover margin
+11
expected +17.5

Luck: −0.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 5th · +18.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.946th
Offense play value−0.984th
Defense efficiency+6.53rd
Defense play value+8.82nd
Drive finishing+0.351st
Field position+3.11st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion−0.1136th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +3.5 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.5
47th
Havoc rate
14.9%
3rd
Rush rate over expected
−5.3%
108th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTTUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas Techoff +0.02 70thdef −0.40 1st

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
3–10against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–1
Pick was the dog2–9
Home / away side1–3 / 2–7
Average gap to the close+4.2 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+2.255th
Full season+2.255th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6Kent StateTTU −37.8−47.5W 62–1499LOSS
Sat, Sep 13Oregon StateTTU −17.5−24.5W 45–1466LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at UtahTTU PK+3.5W 34–1061WIN
Sat, Oct 4at HoustonTTU −6.3−13.5W 35–1181LOSS
Sat, Oct 11KansasTTU −5.3−13.5W 42–1779LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at Arizona StateTTU −3.0−7.5L 22–2645WIN
Sat, Oct 25Oklahoma StateTTU −36.8−37.5W 42–096LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at Kansas StateTTU PK−7.5W 43–2073LOSS
Sat, Nov 8BYUTTU −12.0−13.5W 29–758LOSS
Sat, Nov 15UCFTTU −23.1−24.5W 48–980LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at West VirginiaTTU −24.8−24.5W 49–088WIN
Sat, Dec 6BYUTTU −10.5−12.5W 34–772LOSS
Thu, Jan 1OregonTTU −2.6−1.5L 0–2352LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.