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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Rice

4–8 FBS · American Athletic · 2025
Rating
−15.5
Rank
129
Résumé
102
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
3.4expected wins · finished 4–8
Bowl (6+)6%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

4–8 against 3.4 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 3.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 129thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.6
4–8 vs 3.4
One-score games flipped
3–9
what-if record
Turnover margin
−1
expected −4.0

Luck: +0.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 126th · −13.2 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−4.7133rd
Offense play value−4.3120th
Defense efficiency−0.265th
Defense play value−1.790th
Drive finishing−0.9113th
Field position−1.4128th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.13rd
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +3.4 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.9
36th
Havoc rate
9.8%
90th
Rush rate over expected
+24.8%
3rd · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceRICEgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Riceoff −0.13 124thdef +0.14 118th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–3
Pick was the dog2–4
Home / away side3–5 / 2–2
Average gap to the close+2.7 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−1.280th
Full season−1.280th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at LouisianaRICE +9.0+14.5W 14–1263WIN
Sat, Sep 6HoustonRICE +3.5+13.5L 9–3534LOSS
Thu, Sep 18at CharlotteRICE −1.2−1.5W 28–1782LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at NavyRICE +14.8+14.0L 13–2111LOSS
Sat, Oct 4Florida AtlanticRICE −7.1−4.5L 21–2731LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at UTSARICE +14.4+8.5L 13–6115WIN
Sat, Oct 25UConnRICE +11.3+10.5W 37–3455LOSS
Fri, Oct 31MemphisRICE +14.4+14.0L 14–3815WIN
Sat, Nov 8UABRICE PK+1.5W 24–1746WIN
Sat, Nov 22North TexasRICE +16.4+18.5L 24–5629LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at South FloridaRICE +25.8+28.5L 3–524LOSS
Fri, Jan 2at Texas StateRICE +20.4+19.5L 10–4126WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.