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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Western Michigan

9–4 FBS · Mid-American · 2025
Rating
+2.1
Rank
57
Résumé
51
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.7expected wins · finished 9–4
Bowl (6+)54%
9+ wins4%
11+ wins0%

9–4 against 5.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 57thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+3.3
9–4 vs 5.7
One-score games flipped
7–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+5
expected +5.5

Luck: +1.3 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 74th · −2.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.987th
Offense play value−4.2118th
Defense efficiency+1.238th
Defense play value+1.741st
Drive finishing−1.6125th
Field position+1.512th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security0.062nd
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.9
37th
Havoc rate
10.9%
64th
Rush rate over expected
+12.5%
8th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceWMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Western Michiganoff +0.02 69thdef −0.09 18th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–1
Pick was the dog3–6
Home / away side3–2 / 2–5
Average gap to the close+4.5 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−4.2106th
Full season−4.2106th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29at Michigan StateWMU +14.4+18.5L 6–2312WIN
Sat, Sep 6North TexasWMU +2.9+12.5L 30–3333WIN
Sat, Sep 13at IllinoisWMU +28.2+27.5L 0–3830WIN
Sat, Sep 20ToledoWMU +13.8+13.5W 14–1349LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at MassachusettsWMU −4.3−12.5W 21–370LOSS
Sat, Oct 11Ball StateWMU −8.0−9.5W 42–091LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at Miami (OH)WMU +8.5+2.5L 17–2639WIN
Sat, Nov 1Central MichiganWMU −5.7−6.0W 24–2162WIN
Tue, Nov 11OhioWMU +11.1−1.5W 17–1359LOSS
Tue, Nov 18at Northern IllinoisWMU −1.8−7.0W 35–1978LOSS
Tue, Nov 25at Eastern MichiganWMU −3.6−10.0W 31–2177PUSH
Sat, Dec 6Miami (OH)WMU −0.6−2.5W 23–1369LOSS
Fri, Dec 19Kennesaw StateWMU PK−3.5W 41–691LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.