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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Rutgers

4–7 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
−1.7
Rank
77
Résumé
60
Our picks
5–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.5expected wins · finished 4–7
Bowl (6+)25%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

4–7 against 4.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 4.7.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 77thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.5
4–7 vs 4.5
One-score games flipped
4–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−1
expected −0.5

Luck: −0.7 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 73rd · −2.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.327th
Offense play value+4.511th
Defense efficiency−3.0120th
Defense play value−5.8133rd
Drive finishing+0.063rd
Field position−0.275th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.04th
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.3 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.4
53rd
Havoc rate
9.3%
101st
Rush rate over expected
−0.4%
62nd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceRUTGgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Rutgersoff +0.18 11thdef +0.27 134th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–1
Pick was the dog3–5
Home / away side2–2 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+3.7 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+6.912th
Full season+6.912th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28OhioRUTG −4.8−11.5W 34–3153WIN
Sat, Sep 6Miami (OH)RUTG −14.4−15.5W 45–1768LOSS
Fri, Sep 19IowaRUTG +1.3+2.5L 28–3846LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at MinnesotaRUTG +2.3+3.5L 28–3139WIN
Fri, Oct 10at WashingtonRUTG +7.1+9.5L 19–3828LOSS
Sat, Oct 18OregonRUTG +14.0+17.5L 10–5612LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at PurdueRUTG −4.9+2.5W 27–2469WIN
Sat, Nov 1at IllinoisRUTG +6.8+13.5L 13–3531LOSS
Sat, Nov 8MarylandRUTG −5.4−1.5W 35–2062WIN
Sat, Nov 22at Ohio StateRUTG +30.8+28.5L 9–4211WIN
Sat, Nov 29Penn StateRUTG +18.2+14.0L 36–4050LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.