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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Oklahoma

9–3 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+11.4
Rank
21
Résumé
11
Our picks
8–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.9expected wins · finished 9–3
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins35%
11+ wins3%

9–3 against 7.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 21stAP 13thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.1
9–3 vs 7.9
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
−1
expected 0.0

Luck: +1.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 9th · +14.8 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.576th
Offense play value−2.5104th
Defense efficiency+7.31st
Defense play value+9.31st
Drive finishing−0.172nd
Field position+1.318th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.0 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+3.3
6th
Havoc rate
13.7%
10th
Rush rate over expected
−5.8%
112th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oklahomaoff −0.05 103rddef −0.16 5th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–2
Pick was the dog4–2
Home / away side2–2 / 6–2
Average gap to the close+2.6 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+5.523rd
Full season+5.523rd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6MichiganOU −0.5−3.0W 24–1371LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at TempleOU −27.9−23.5W 42–392WIN
Sat, Sep 20AuburnOU −8.8−6.5W 24–1751WIN
Sat, Oct 4Kent StateOU −47.3−46.5W 44–089LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at TexasOU PK+2.5L 6–2333LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at South CarolinaOU −5.5−4.5W 26–790WIN
Sat, Oct 25Ole MissOU −2.8−5.5L 26–3453WIN
Sat, Nov 1at TennesseeOU +2.5+3.0W 33–2755WIN
Sat, Nov 15at AlabamaOU +4.2+6.5W 23–2142WIN
Sat, Nov 22MissouriOU −11.0−4.5W 17–652WIN
Sat, Nov 29LSUOU −10.0−11.5W 17–1355WIN
Fri, Dec 19AlabamaOU −4.9−1.5L 24–3445LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.