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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Michigan

9–4 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
+9.1
Rank
25
Résumé
23
Our picks
6–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.8expected wins · finished 9–4
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins60%
11+ wins12%

9–4 against 8.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.3.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 25thAP 21stFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.2
9–4 vs 8.8
One-score games flipped
6–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
−3
expected −0.5

Luck: +1.7 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 33rd · +6.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.832nd
Offense play value+2.034th
Defense efficiency+0.352nd
Defense play value+1.149th
Drive finishing+0.159th
Field position+1.021st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.7
117th
Havoc rate
10.6%
72nd
Rush rate over expected
+3.2%
35th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMICHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Michiganoff +0.11 32nddef +0.01 50th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite6–5
Pick was the dog0–2
Home / away side3–3 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+2.8 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+4.530th
Full season+4.530th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30New MexicoMICH −39.0−36.5W 34–1791LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at OklahomaMICH +0.5+3.0L 13–2430LOSS
Sat, Sep 13Central MichiganMICH −39.5−27.5W 63–396WIN
Sat, Sep 20at NebraskaMICH −3.4−1.5W 30–2767WIN
Sat, Oct 4WisconsinMICH −20.0−17.5W 24–1075LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at USCMICH +4.0+3.0L 13–3128WIN
Sat, Oct 18WashingtonMICH −4.8−4.0W 24–771WIN
Sat, Oct 25at Michigan StateMICH −15.9−13.5W 31–2062LOSS
Sat, Nov 1PurdueMICH −21.7−21.0W 21–1667LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at NorthwesternMICH −13.9−10.0W 24–2270LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at MarylandMICH −16.0−14.0W 45–2080WIN
Sat, Nov 29Ohio StateMICH +11.3+9.5L 9–2711WIN
Wed, Dec 31at TexasMICH +1.5+4.5L 27–4120LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.