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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Ole Miss

12–2 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+15.3
Rank
9
Résumé
7
Our picks
9–5
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
9.6expected wins · finished 12–2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins77%
11+ wins28%

12–2 against 9.6 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.4.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 9thAP 3rdFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
6–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.4
12–2 vs 9.6
One-score games flipped
8–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+2
expected +2.5

Luck: +2.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 16th · +12.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+3.910th
Offense play value+4.413th
Defense efficiency+2.523rd
Defense play value+0.555th
Drive finishing+1.67th
Field position−0.273rd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.5 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.2
29th
Havoc rate
10.3%
82nd
Rush rate over expected
−3.5%
99th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMISSgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ole Missoff +0.14 21stdef +0.06 78th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
9–5against the closing line
Pick was the favorite6–2
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side5–2 / 4–3
Average gap to the close+3.6 pts
Our line beat the close9 of 14

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+4.829th
Full season+4.829th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30Georgia StateMISS −27.4−38.5W 63–772LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at KentuckyMISS −13.4−7.5W 30–2364LOSS
Sat, Sep 13ArkansasMISS −6.6−3.5W 41–3550WIN
Sat, Sep 20TulaneMISS −17.1−12.5W 45–1081WIN
Sat, Sep 27LSUMISS −7.2−2.5W 24–1964WIN
Sat, Oct 11Washington StateMISS −29.4−33.5W 24–2159WIN
Sat, Oct 18at GeorgiaMISS +6.7+7.5L 35–4348LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at OklahomaMISS +2.8+5.5W 34–2647WIN
Sat, Nov 1South CarolinaMISS −14.1−12.5W 30–1456WIN
Sat, Nov 15FloridaMISS −9.5−10.5W 34–2452WIN
Fri, Nov 28at Mississippi StateMISS −13.8−7.5W 38–1955WIN
Sat, Dec 20TulaneMISS −17.9−16.5W 41–1070WIN
Thu, Jan 1at GeorgiaMISS +7.0+6.0W 39–3462LOSS
Thu, Jan 8MiamiMISS +1.3+3.0L 27–3143LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.