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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Alabama

10–4 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+12.1
Rank
19
Résumé
9
Our picks
4–8
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
9.1expected wins · finished 10–4
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins65%
11+ wins19%

10–4 against 9.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 8.5.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 19thAP 9thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.9
10–4 vs 9.1
One-score games flipped
7–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
+9
expected +10.5

Luck: +1.5 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 17th · +12.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.736th
Offense play value+2.232nd
Defense efficiency+3.513th
Defense play value+4.014th
Drive finishing+1.120th
Field position−0.168th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.04th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.3 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.7
115th
Havoc rate
12.6%
16th
Rush rate over expected
−10.2%
130th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceALAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Alabamaoff +0.01 77thdef −0.04 34th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–8against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–4
Pick was the dog1–4
Home / away side3–3 / 1–5
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 14

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+8.07th
Full season+8.07th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at Florida StateALA −19.3−13.5L 17–3120LOSS
Sat, Sep 6UL MonroeALA −33.9−34.5W 73–076LOSS
Sat, Sep 13WisconsinALA −20.4−17.5W 38–1493WIN
Sat, Sep 27at GeorgiaALA +7.5+2.5W 24–2159LOSS
Sat, Oct 4VanderbiltALA −6.1−13.5W 30–1464LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at MissouriALA −5.3−3.0W 27–2459PUSH
Sat, Oct 18TennesseeALA −7.8−8.5W 37–2066LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at South CarolinaALA −13.2−11.5W 29–2253LOSS
Sat, Nov 8LSUALA −11.5−10.0W 20–947WIN
Sat, Nov 15OklahomaALA −4.2−6.5L 21–2358WIN
Sat, Nov 29at AuburnALA −9.6−7.0W 27–2046PUSH
Sat, Dec 6GeorgiaALA PK+1.5L 7–2827LOSS
Fri, Dec 19at OklahomaALA +4.9+1.5W 34–2456LOSS
Thu, Jan 1at IndianaALA +10.6+7.5L 3–3828WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.