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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Missouri

7–5 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+7.8
Rank
31
Résumé
43
Our picks
4–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.6expected wins · finished 7–5
Bowl (6+)76%
9+ wins11%
11+ wins0%

7–5 against 6.6 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 31stAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.4
7–5 vs 6.6
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
−4
expected −7.5

Luck: +0.4 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 13th · +12.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.929th
Offense play value+1.836th
Defense efficiency+4.67th
Defense play value+4.711th
Drive finishing+0.157th
Field position−0.381st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.099th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.2 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.5
51st
Havoc rate
13.6%
12th
Rush rate over expected
+4.7%
27th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceMIZgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Missourioff +0.04 64thdef −0.05 29th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–1
Pick was the dog2–6
Home / away side2–4 / 2–3
Average gap to the close+4.1 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+2.552nd
Full season+2.552nd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6KansasMIZ −2.0−7.0W 42–3163LOSS
Sat, Sep 13LouisianaMIZ −20.7−27.5W 52–1098LOSS
Sat, Sep 20South CarolinaMIZ −5.3−10.0W 29–2065WIN
Sat, Sep 27MassachusettsMIZ −37.0−44.5W 42–675WIN
Sat, Oct 11AlabamaMIZ +5.3+3.0L 24–2741PUSH
Sat, Oct 18at AuburnMIZ PK−1.5W 23–1747LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at VanderbiltMIZ +5.9+3.0L 10–1750WIN
Sat, Nov 8Texas A&MMIZ +6.3+7.0L 17–3815LOSS
Sat, Nov 15Mississippi StateMIZ −7.3−7.5W 49–2776LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at OklahomaMIZ +11.0+4.5L 6–1749WIN
Sat, Nov 29at ArkansasMIZ +0.6−4.5W 31–1769LOSS
Sat, Dec 27VirginiaMIZ −7.9−4.0L 7–1333LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.