LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Texas

10–3 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+11.5
Rank
20
Résumé
15
Our picks
4–9
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.4expected wins · finished 10–3
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins49%
11+ wins8%

10–3 against 8.4 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 8.2.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 20thAP 12thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.6
10–3 vs 8.4
One-score games flipped
9–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+17
expected +12.5

Luck: +1.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 26th · +9.5 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.268th
Offense play value+1.935th
Defense efficiency+2.621st
Defense play value+3.717th
Drive finishing−0.068th
Field position+1.414th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.5 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.8
42nd
Havoc rate
12.2%
25th
Rush rate over expected
−4.4%
103rd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTEXgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texasoff +0.01 74thdef −0.08 22nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
4–9against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–5
Pick was the dog2–4
Home / away side2–1 / 2–8
Average gap to the close+2.9 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.342nd
Full season+3.342nd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30at Ohio StateTEX +8.8+3.0L 7–1437WIN
Sat, Sep 6San José StateTEX −33.1−36.5W 38–792WIN
Sat, Sep 13UTEPTEX −43.8−39.5W 27–1054LOSS
Sat, Sep 20Sam HoustonTEX −38.7−39.5W 55–098LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at FloridaTEX −7.5−4.5L 21–2923LOSS
Sat, Oct 11OklahomaTEX PK−2.5W 23–667LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at KentuckyTEX −13.3−12.5W 16–1336LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at Mississippi StateTEX −10.7−8.5W 45–3834LOSS
Sat, Nov 1VanderbiltTEX −1.6−3.5W 34–3165WIN
Sat, Nov 15at GeorgiaTEX +9.8+3.5L 10–3545WIN
Sat, Nov 22ArkansasTEX −7.7−8.5W 52–3767LOSS
Fri, Nov 28Texas A&MTEX +4.6+2.5W 27–1756LOSS
Wed, Dec 31MichiganTEX −1.5−4.5W 41–2781LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.