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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Penn State

6–6 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
+11.1
Rank
22
Résumé
44
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
9.1expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins69%
11+ wins12%

6–6 against 9.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 22ndAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–5
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−3.1
6–6 vs 9.1
One-score games flipped
10–2
what-if record
Turnover margin
+9
expected −2.5

Luck: −0.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 19th · +11.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.524th
Offense play value+2.430th
Defense efficiency+1.239th
Defense play value+2.233rd
Drive finishing+1.022nd
Field position+2.06th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.1 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+2.4
12th
Havoc rate
10.3%
83rd
Rush rate over expected
+2.3%
41st · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForcePSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Penn Stateoff +0.07 44thdef +0.05 74th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–6
Pick was the dog3–1
Home / away side2–4 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+6.4 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+5.821st
Full season+5.821st

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30NevadaPSU −47.0−45.5W 46–1189LOSS
Sat, Sep 6Florida InternationalPSU −44.5−41.5W 34–064LOSS
Sat, Sep 27OregonPSU −8.0−3.5L 24–3041LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at UCLAPSU −28.8−24.5L 37–4240LOSS
Sat, Oct 11NorthwesternPSU −26.6−20.5L 21–2257LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at IowaPSU −4.1+3.0L 24–2539WIN
Sat, Nov 1at Ohio StatePSU +9.7+17.5L 14–3834LOSS
Sat, Nov 8IndianaPSU +5.3+14.5L 24–2752WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Michigan StatePSU −18.3−7.0W 28–1067WIN
Sat, Nov 22NebraskaPSU −13.9−7.0W 37–1087WIN
Sat, Nov 29at RutgersPSU −18.2−14.0W 40–3650LOSS
Sat, Dec 27at ClemsonPSU −8.1+2.5W 22–1055WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.