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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Rutgers

1–4 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−11.0
Rank
117
Résumé
125
Projected wins
2.1▼ 2.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3MassachusettsMASSRUTG −30.2RUTG −29.5L 21–3734RUTG · L
Fri, Sep 119/11at Boston CollegeBCRUTG +3.0RUTG +3.5L 21–2845RUTG · L
Sat, Sep 199/19USCUSCRUTG +24.1RUTG +24.5L 35–4248RUTG · W
Fri, Sep 259/25HowardHowardRUTG −36.1RUTG −42.0W 58–774
Sat, Oct 310/3IndianaIURUTG +22.9RUTG +24.0L 15–478RUTG · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at MarylandMDRUTG +10.1RUTG +6.0MD −6.0Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at NorthwesternNURUTG +22.5—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31MichiganMICHRUTG +19.9—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at WisconsinWISRUTG +24.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14NebraskaNEBRUTG +21.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Penn StatePSURUTG +19.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Michigan StateMSURUTG +8.0—wk 13

Model on RUTG games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–2, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +1.5 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.11–4 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 1.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0780th
Success rate45.9%47th
Pass EPA+0.1744th
Rush EPA−0.02104th
Explosive rate12.9%66th
Quality-drive rate48.9%84th
Points per quality drive3.981st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.19124th
Success allowed48.2%130th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1297th
Rush EPA allowed+0.25134th
Explosive allowed16.7%137th
Havoc rate10.0%48th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.7100th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−3.2 yd112th
Hidden points / game−6.6gave up
Luck, wins−1.12.0 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected+0.8%51st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.0117th
Schedule played+3.045th
Schedule remaining+6.534th
Full schedule+5.234th
Pregame expected wins1.1of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 117th · −11.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMURUTGgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Rutgersoff +0.07 80thdef +0.19 allowed · 124th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.