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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Oregon

12–2 FBS · Big Ten · 2025
Rating
+21.6
Rank
5
Résumé
2
Our picks
7–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
9.7expected wins · finished 12–2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins80%
11+ wins31%

12–2 against 9.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.2.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 5thAP 4thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.3
12–2 vs 9.7
One-score games flipped
10–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+1
expected +5.0

Luck: +2.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 6th · +18.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+4.37th
Offense play value+4.115th
Defense efficiency+4.09th
Defense play value+3.518th
Drive finishing+1.118th
Field position+1.316th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.2 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.1
61st
Havoc rate
10.0%
85th
Rush rate over expected
−2.9%
93rd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceOREgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oregonoff +0.08 43rddef −0.11 14th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–4
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side3–3 / 4–4
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 14

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+8.56th
Full season+8.56th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6Oklahoma StateORE −29.2−28.5W 69–397WIN
Sat, Sep 13at NorthwesternORE −29.3−25.5W 34–1476LOSS
Sat, Sep 20Oregon StateORE −36.6−33.5W 41–777WIN
Sat, Sep 27at Penn StateORE +8.0+3.5W 30–2460LOSS
Sat, Oct 11IndianaORE −4.5−7.0L 20–3038WIN
Sat, Oct 18at RutgersORE −14.0−17.5W 56–1088LOSS
Sat, Oct 25WisconsinORE −27.4−31.5W 21–782WIN
Sat, Nov 8at IowaORE −5.8−4.5W 18–1639LOSS
Fri, Nov 14MinnesotaORE −22.2−26.5W 42–1388LOSS
Sat, Nov 22USCORE −7.3−10.5W 42–2767LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at WashingtonORE −6.6−6.5W 26–1457WIN
Sat, Dec 20James MadisonORE −14.1−20.5W 51–3490WIN
Thu, Jan 1at Texas TechORE +2.6+1.5W 23–049LOSS
Fri, Jan 9at IndianaORE +6.2+3.0L 22–565WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.