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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Vanderbilt

9–3 FBS · SEC · 2025
Rating
+14.4
Rank
10
Résumé
16
Our picks
8–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.5expected wins · finished 9–3
Bowl (6+)90%
9+ wins25%
11+ wins2%

9–3 against 7.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 8.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 10thAP 15thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.5
9–3 vs 7.5
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+7
expected +1.5

Luck: +0.4 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 11th · +13.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+4.74th
Offense play value+9.21st
Defense efficiency+0.157th
Defense play value−2.3100th
Drive finishing+2.04th
Field position+0.160th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.4 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.2
60th
Havoc rate
11.3%
48th
Rush rate over expected
−6.4%
115th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceVANgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Vanderbiltoff +0.30 1stdef +0.11 103rd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite5–3
Pick was the dog3–1
Home / away side5–3 / 3–1
Average gap to the close+2.8 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.144th
Full season+3.144th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at Virginia TechVAN +4.8+2.5W 44–2071LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at South CarolinaVAN +7.5+3.0W 31–772LOSS
Sat, Sep 20Georgia StateVAN −28.4−27.5W 70–2185WIN
Sat, Sep 27Utah StateVAN −22.9−23.5W 55–3567WIN
Sat, Oct 4at AlabamaVAN +6.1+13.5L 14–3037LOSS
Sat, Oct 18LSUVAN −2.3−1.5W 31–2449WIN
Sat, Oct 25MissouriVAN −5.9−3.0W 17–1051WIN
Sat, Nov 1at TexasVAN +1.6+3.5L 31–3435WIN
Sat, Nov 8AuburnVAN −9.1−6.0W 45–3856WIN
Sat, Nov 22KentuckyVAN −10.8−7.0W 45–1797WIN
Sat, Nov 29at TennesseeVAN PK+2.5W 45–2457WIN
Wed, Dec 31IowaVAN −6.4−3.0L 27–3444LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.