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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Utah State

5–7 FBS · Pac-12 · 2025
Rating
−0.9
Rank
73
Résumé
84
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.2expected wins · finished 5–7
Bowl (6+)43%
9+ wins2%
11+ wins0%

5–7 against 5.2 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.6.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 73rdFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.2
5–7 vs 5.2
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+6
expected +4.5

Luck: −0.6 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 72nd · −2.0 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.986th
Offense play value+0.657th
Defense efficiency−0.980th
Defense play value−1.081st
Drive finishing+0.925th
Field position−0.8108th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion+0.026th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +0.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−2.0
123rd
Havoc rate
12.2%
27th
Rush rate over expected
−3.2%
96th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Utah Stateoff +0.06 50thdef +0.03 65th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–3
Pick was the dog5–3
Home / away side2–1 / 4–5
Average gap to the close+2.9 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+0.272nd
Full season+0.272nd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30UTEPUSU −7.8−3.5W 28–1678WIN
Sat, Sep 6at Texas A&MUSU +30.8+34.5L 22–4419WIN
Sat, Sep 13Air ForceUSU PK+4.0W 49–3083WIN
Sat, Sep 27at VanderbiltUSU +22.9+23.5L 35–5534WIN
Sat, Oct 11at Hawai'iUSU −2.7−1.5L 26–4437LOSS
Fri, Oct 17San José StateUSU PK−3.0W 30–2555LOSS
Sat, Oct 25at New MexicoUSU PK+3.0L 14–3310LOSS
Sat, Nov 8NevadaUSU −8.7−10.0W 51–1498LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at UNLVUSU +8.8+4.5L 26–2952LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at Fresno StateUSU +1.1+1.5W 28–1780WIN
Fri, Nov 28Boise StateUSU +8.3+1.5L 24–2544LOSS
Mon, Dec 22Washington StateUSU +1.1−1.5L 21–3424WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.