Market trend

High totals go under

College totals in the top 15% of the board land under far more often than they land over.

2026CollegeUnder 58.5+

Oct 12, 6:06 PM EDTa week's slate freezes when DraftKings has posted most of it; graded after the week's last final

Season

2026 season

17–16

too early to mean anything

+0.9 ptsline value · 21 of 33 dropped

57.9%511 games · 2021–2025 · ±2.2 · 5 of 5 seasons paid

46%retire line · one season below this

Week 6

under · opening total at or above 58.5 · posted on X

FSUat

LOUFri, Oct 9Under 58.5DraftKings · Oct 4, 3:20 PM EDT59.5 +1.064Lost · 64

SCat

FLASat, Oct 10Under 61.5DraftKings · Oct 4, 3:20 PM EDT59.0 −2.557Won · 57

ARIZat

WVUSat, Oct 10Under 59.5DraftKings · Oct 4, 3:20 PM EDT61.0 +1.583Lost · 83

WAKEat

NCSUSat, Oct 10Under 60.5DraftKings · Oct 4, 3:20 PM EDT56.0 −4.552Won · 52

UCLAat

ORESat, Oct 10Under 61.5DraftKings · Oct 4, 3:20 PM EDT58.0 −3.532Won · 32

CLTat

UNTSat, Oct 10Under 60.5DraftKings · Oct 4, 3:20 PM EDT58.0 −2.560Won · 60

UABat

MEMSat, Oct 10Under 58.5DraftKings · Oct 4, 3:20 PM EDT55.0 −3.551Won · 51

By season

every season the rule has run

20263317–1651.5%±8.7-1.7%

202511267–4559.8%±4.6+14.2%

202410360–4358.3%±4.9+11.2%

20238144–3754.3%±5.5+3.7%

202212567–57–154.0%±4.5+3.2%

20219158–3363.7%±5.0+21.7%

Why this is here

not a model pick

Published for pro football by Paul & Weinbach in 2002 and long dead there — our NFL test finds nothing. It is alive in college: against the opening total, 57.9% over 512 games from 2021 to 2025, above the vig in all five seasons, and it tests the same against the close, so it is not a stale-line artifact. The cut is the top 15% of the last thousand totals, refit weekly.

A note about the market, not a forecast of the game: it is graded on its own ledger, never the model’s, at the number each card was posted at (unposted weeks and past seasons ride at the number first seen). How we grade. Credit: The rule was published for pro football by Rodney J. Paul and Andrew P. Weinbach. The idea is theirs; the college test and the live ledger are ours. original paper.

The 46% retire line: the same rule was profitable in pro football until about 2009 and has been dead there since. A rule still winning at its long-run rate lands under 50% about one season in ten but under 46% about one in sixty, so one season below it retires the rule and this page stops publishing it.