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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Arkansas State

6–6 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
−7.4
Rank
100
Résumé
91
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
4.9expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)35%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

6–6 against 4.9 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 100thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.1
6–6 vs 4.9
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
−8
expected −5.0

Luck: −0.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 120th · −10.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−1.6101st
Offense play value−3.5114th
Defense efficiency−2.2115th
Defense play value−2.6104th
Drive finishing−0.7108th
Field position+0.350th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.0115th
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.8 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+4.6
2nd
Havoc rate
12.8%
15th
Rush rate over expected
−6.9%
118th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceARSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arkansas Stateoff +0.00 83rddef +0.07 85th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite0–4
Pick was the dog5–3
Home / away side5–3 / 0–4
Average gap to the close+2.3 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.1118th
Full season−5.1118th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6at ArkansasARST +23.1+24.5L 14–5610LOSS
Sat, Sep 13Iowa StateARST +18.2+21.0L 16–2430WIN
Sat, Sep 20at Kennesaw StateARST −6.5−4.5L 21–2846LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at UL MonroeARST PK+1.5L 16–2827LOSS
Sat, Oct 4Texas StateARST +12.1+14.0W 31–3057WIN
Tue, Oct 14at South AlabamaARST +9.6+8.5W 15–1456LOSS
Sat, Oct 25Georgia SouthernARST +1.2+1.5W 34–2465WIN
Sat, Nov 1at TroyARST +8.5+7.5W 23–1090LOSS
Sat, Nov 8Southern MissARST −5.6+6.5L 21–2741WIN
Thu, Nov 20LouisianaARST −4.1−2.5L 30–3431LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at App StateARST −1.2−1.5W 30–2957WIN
Thu, Dec 18Missouri StateARST PK−1.5W 34–2848LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.