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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

App State

4–8 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
−10.2
Rank
110
Résumé
113
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.2expected wins · finished 4–8
Bowl (6+)41%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

4–8 against 5.2 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 110thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.2
4–8 vs 5.2
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+5
expected +1.5

Luck: −1.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 125th · −12.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−2.1109th
Offense play value−2.8107th
Defense efficiency−3.4127th
Defense play value−3.1114th
Drive finishing−0.385th
Field position−1.3126th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.1131st
Third-down conversion+0.011th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −4.2 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.8
41st
Havoc rate
9.5%
95th
Rush rate over expected
−7.8%
122nd · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceAPPgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
App Stateoff −0.04 101stdef +0.12 111th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–2
Pick was the dog4–4
Home / away side3–3 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+4.1 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−5.7121st
Full season−5.7121st

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29at CharlotteAPP −2.4−8.5W 34–1171LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at Southern MissAPP −17.3−3.0L 22–3815LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at Boise StateAPP +17.5+16.5L 14–4719WIN
Sat, Oct 4Oregon StateAPP +2.0−1.5W 27–2346LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at Georgia StateAPP +2.0−3.0W 41–2083LOSS
Sat, Oct 18Coastal CarolinaAPP −9.8−10.5L 37–4544WIN
Sat, Oct 25at Old DominionAPP +11.0+13.5L 21–2438WIN
Thu, Nov 6Georgia SouthernAPP −2.1−4.5L 23–2538WIN
Sat, Nov 15at James MadisonAPP +24.5+21.0L 10–5815WIN
Sat, Nov 22MarshallAPP +7.4+4.0W 26–2448LOSS
Sat, Nov 29Arkansas StateAPP +1.2+1.5L 29–3044WIN
Mon, Dec 29Georgia SouthernAPP +2.9+10.0L 10–2925LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.