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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Texas State

6–6 FBS · Pac-12 · 2025
Rating
+1.6
Rank
60
Résumé
90
Our picks
8–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.1expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)86%
9+ wins17%
11+ wins1%

6–6 against 7.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 7.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 60thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–4
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.1
6–6 vs 7.1
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
−4
expected −1.5

Luck: −1.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 62nd · +0.6 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.833rd
Offense play value+3.127th
Defense efficiency−0.982nd
Defense play value−2.8110th
Drive finishing+0.827th
Field position−1.4129th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.3 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.4
78th
Havoc rate
14.1%
7th
Rush rate over expected
+4.6%
28th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceTXSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas Stateoff +0.13 24thdef +0.04 70th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–2
Pick was the dog5–2
Home / away side5–2 / 3–2
Average gap to the close+2.2 pts
Our line beat the close8 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−4.9116th
Full season−4.9116th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30Eastern MichiganTXST −15.4−14.0W 52–2756WIN
Sat, Sep 6at UTSATXST +6.6+4.5W 43–3652LOSS
Sat, Sep 13at Arizona StateTXST +15.0+18.5L 15–3417LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at Arkansas StateTXST −12.1−14.0L 30–3143WIN
Sat, Oct 11TroyTXST −7.1−7.5L 41–4856WIN
Sat, Oct 18at MarshallTXST +3.4−3.0L 37–4062WIN
Tue, Oct 28James MadisonTXST +8.4+7.0L 20–5217WIN
Sat, Nov 8at LouisianaTXST −2.3−3.5L 39–4245WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Southern MissTXST −1.1+3.0W 41–1474WIN
Sat, Nov 22UL MonroeTXST −22.6−20.5W 31–1470LOSS
Sat, Nov 29South AlabamaTXST −8.2−9.5W 49–2682LOSS
Fri, Jan 2RiceTXST −20.4−19.5W 41–1075WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.