LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Iowa State

7–4 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
+5.1
Rank
40
Résumé
32
Our picks
7–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.6expected wins · finished 7–4
Bowl (6+)77%
9+ wins10%
11+ wins0%

7–4 against 6.6 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.0.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 40thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
5–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.4
7–4 vs 6.6
One-score games flipped
5–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+5
expected +4.5

Luck: +1.0 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 51st · +3.8 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+1.735th
Offense play value+0.065th
Defense efficiency+1.043rd
Defense play value+1.051st
Drive finishing−0.387th
Field position+0.442nd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.4 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+2.4
11th
Havoc rate
11.7%
41st
Rush rate over expected
+2.3%
40th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceISUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Iowa Stateoff +0.01 80thdef +0.02 58th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite3–3
Pick was the dog4–1
Home / away side5–2 / 2–2
Average gap to the close+3.1 pts
Our line beat the close7 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+2.353rd
Full season+2.353rd

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 23at Kansas StateISU +8.4+3.5W 24–2146LOSS
Sat, Sep 6IowaISU −1.9−1.5W 16–1359WIN
Sat, Sep 13at Arkansas StateISU −18.2−21.0W 24–1671WIN
Sat, Sep 27ArizonaISU −5.9−4.0W 39–1471WIN
Sat, Oct 4at CincinnatiISU −2.3+1.5L 30–3821LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at ColoradoISU −1.3−3.0L 17–2438WIN
Sat, Oct 25BYUISU −2.8−2.5L 27–4139LOSS
Sat, Nov 1Arizona StateISU PK−7.5L 19–2436WIN
Sat, Nov 8at TCUISU +5.6+7.5W 20–1743WIN
Sat, Nov 22KansasISU −4.0−3.0W 38–1468WIN
Sat, Nov 29at Oklahoma StateISU −22.3−14.0W 20–1358LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.