LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Kennesaw State

9–4 FBS · Conference USA · 2025
Rating
−0.5
Rank
71
Résumé
47
Our picks
2–11
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.5expected wins · finished 9–4
Bowl (6+)50%
9+ wins4%
11+ wins0%

9–4 against 5.5 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 71stFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
6–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+3.5
9–4 vs 5.5
One-score games flipped
4–9
what-if record
Turnover margin
−1
expected −3.5

Luck: +3.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 104th · −7.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.783rd
Offense play value+0.754th
Defense efficiency−2.3117th
Defense play value−4.0125th
Drive finishing−0.7104th
Field position−0.278th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.6 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−3.2
133rd
Havoc rate
11.9%
38th
Rush rate over expected
+2.5%
37th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceKENNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kennesaw Stateoff +0.07 47thdef +0.09 92nd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
2–11against the closing line
Pick was the favorite0–3
Pick was the dog2–8
Home / away side2–4 / 0–7
Average gap to the close+5.1 pts
Our line beat the close2 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−3.197th
Full season−3.197th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Aug 29at Wake ForestKENN +18.7+17.5L 9–1049LOSS
Sat, Sep 6at IndianaKENN +34.9+35.5L 9–5614LOSS
Sat, Sep 20Arkansas StateKENN +6.5+4.5W 28–2155LOSS
Sat, Sep 27Middle TennesseeKENN −2.3−7.0W 24–1658LOSS
Thu, Oct 9Louisiana TechKENN +12.9+4.5W 35–776LOSS
Tue, Oct 21at Florida InternationalKENN +2.5−3.0W 45–2672LOSS
Tue, Oct 28UTEPKENN −7.0−12.5W 33–2041LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at New Mexico StateKENN −3.0−11.5W 24–2137WIN
Sat, Nov 15at Jacksonville StateKENN +6.0−3.5L 26–3539WIN
Sat, Nov 22Missouri StateKENN −1.0−6.5W 41–3456LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at LibertyKENN PK−2.5W 48–4245LOSS
Fri, Dec 5at Jacksonville StateKENN +6.3−3.0W 19–1550LOSS
Fri, Dec 19at Western MichiganKENN PK+3.5L 6–4110LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.