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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

South Alabama

3–8 FBS · Sun Belt · 2025
Rating
−8.7
Rank
106
Résumé
116
Our picks
5–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
5.8expected wins · finished 3–8
Bowl (6+)59%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%

3–8 against 5.8 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 2.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 106thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−2.8
3–8 vs 5.8
One-score games flipped
4–7
what-if record
Turnover margin
+1
expected −2.5

Luck: +0.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 85th · −4.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency−0.885th
Offense play value+1.444th
Defense efficiency−1.493rd
Defense play value−3.8120th
Drive finishing+0.447th
Field position−0.696th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion−0.080th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.9 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−1.1
107th
Havoc rate
8.5%
115th
Rush rate over expected
+10.3%
10th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmyHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceUSAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
South Alabamaoff +0.05 57thdef +0.15 120th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–3
Pick was the dog4–3
Home / away side3–4 / 2–2
Average gap to the close+4.4 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 11

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−4.2106th
Full season−4.2106th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6TulaneUSA +2.1+13.5L 31–3337WIN
Sat, Sep 13at AuburnUSA +17.6+26.5L 15–3126WIN
Sat, Sep 20Coastal CarolinaUSA −17.0−14.5L 20–3840LOSS
Sat, Sep 27at North TexasUSA +10.3+13.5L 22–3633LOSS
Sat, Oct 4at TroyUSA +1.6−2.5L 24–3150WIN
Tue, Oct 14Arkansas StateUSA −9.6−8.5L 14–1544LOSS
Thu, Oct 23at Georgia StateUSA −4.6−6.0W 38–3147LOSS
Sat, Nov 1LouisianaUSA −5.1−3.5L 22–3129LOSS
Sat, Nov 15at UL MonroeUSA −10.0−4.0W 26–1484WIN
Sat, Nov 22Southern MissUSA −4.5+2.5W 42–3573WIN
Sat, Nov 29at Texas StateUSA +8.2+9.5L 26–4919LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.