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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Cincinnati

6–6 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
+0.5
Rank
65
Résumé
56
Our picks
5–7
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
6.3expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)69%
9+ wins8%
11+ wins0%

6–6 against 6.3 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 6.5.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 65thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
2–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.3
6–6 vs 6.3
One-score games flipped
6–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
−8
expected −2.5

Luck: −0.5 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 34th · +6.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.622nd
Offense play value+6.44th
Defense efficiency−1.289th
Defense play value−2.6105th
Drive finishing+1.313th
Field position−0.169th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion+0.06th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.1 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.1
64th
Havoc rate
7.0%
132nd
Rush rate over expected
−0.3%
61st · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceCINgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Cincinnatioff +0.19 10thdef +0.13 115th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–2
Pick was the dog3–5
Home / away side2–4 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+3.3 pts
Our line beat the close5 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+2.255th
Full season+2.255th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Thu, Aug 28NebraskaCIN +3.1+6.5L 17–2048WIN
Sat, Sep 6Bowling GreenCIN −12.3−21.5W 34–2088WIN
Sat, Sep 27at KansasCIN +9.1+5.5W 37–3447LOSS
Sat, Oct 4Iowa StateCIN +2.3−1.5W 38–3080LOSS
Sat, Oct 11UCFCIN −10.1−10.0W 20–1167LOSS
Sat, Oct 18at Oklahoma StateCIN −23.4−23.5W 49–1765LOSS
Sat, Oct 25BaylorCIN −1.3−3.5W 41–2060LOSS
Sat, Nov 1at UtahCIN +7.9+11.5L 14–4538LOSS
Sat, Nov 15ArizonaCIN −1.4−5.5L 24–3046WIN
Sat, Nov 22BYUCIN +4.2+2.5L 14–2644WIN
Sat, Nov 29at TCUCIN +3.5+3.0L 23–4544WIN
Fri, Jan 2NavyCIN PK+7.5L 13–3524LOSS

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.