Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Cincinnati
4–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+0.3
Rank
62
Résumé
38
Projected wins
6.5▲ 1.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on CIN games: 0–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 0–2 · home 0–1, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 1 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.54–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)48%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%
The 7 games left add 2.5 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1741st
Success rate44.8%53rd
Pass EPA+0.1454th
Rush EPA+0.1923rd
Explosive rate12.9%67th
Quality-drive rate58.8%27th
Points per quality drive4.539th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0792nd
Success allowed44.5%107th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0574th
Rush EPA allowed+0.11104th
Explosive allowed13.3%99th
Havoc rate7.6%104th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.837th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +6.5
Field position margin+5.4 yd22nd
Hidden points / game+5.4banked
Luck, wins+0.53.5 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected+4.1%30th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+0.362nd
Schedule played+0.763rd
Schedule remaining+7.430th
Full schedule+4.940th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 62nd · +0.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Cincinnatioff +0.17 41stdef +0.07 allowed · 92nd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Cincinnatioff +0.17 41stdef +0.07 allowed · 92nd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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