Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Cincinnati

4–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+0.3
Rank
62
Résumé
38
Projected wins
6.5▲ 1.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Boston CollegeBCCIN −7.3CIN −7.5W 34–1552BC · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Western CarolinaWestern CarolinaCIN −32.1CIN −36.0W 62–1076
Sat, Sep 199/19Miami (OH)M-OHCIN −19.1CIN −14.5W 35–3170CIN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Kansas StateKSUCIN +8.1CIN +7.0W 31–2656KSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at ArizonaARIZCIN +5.2CIN +7.0L 7–3421CIN · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at West VirginiaWVUCIN −2.2CIN +1.5CIN +1.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31UtahUTAHCIN +18.5—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at HoustonHOUCIN +15.5—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2811/28at BYUBYUCIN +15.8—wk 13

Model on CIN games: 0–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 0–2 · home 0–1, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.54–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)48%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1741st
Success rate44.8%53rd
Pass EPA+0.1454th
Rush EPA+0.1923rd
Explosive rate12.9%67th
Quality-drive rate58.8%27th
Points per quality drive4.539th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0792nd
Success allowed44.5%107th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0574th
Rush EPA allowed+0.11104th
Explosive allowed13.3%99th
Havoc rate7.6%104th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.837th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +6.5
Field position margin+5.4 yd22nd
Hidden points / game+5.4banked
Luck, wins+0.53.5 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected+4.1%30th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+0.362nd
Schedule played+0.763rd
Schedule remaining+7.430th
Full schedule+4.940th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 62nd · +0.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCINgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Cincinnatioff +0.17 41stdef +0.07 allowed · 92nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.