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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

BYU

11–2 FBS · Big 12 · 2025
Rating
+13.3
Rank
15
Résumé
5
Our picks
7–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.7expected wins · finished 11–2
Bowl (6+)92%
9+ wins30%
11+ wins3%

11–2 against 7.7 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 9.3.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 15thAP 11thFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
4–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+3.3
11–2 vs 7.7
One-score games flipped
7–6
what-if record
Turnover margin
+7
expected +7.5

Luck: +1.7 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 18th · +12.1 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.819th
Offense play value+3.621st
Defense efficiency+1.532nd
Defense play value+2.926th
Drive finishing+0.734th
Field position+0.534th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion+0.039th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.0 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.3
73rd
Havoc rate
11.1%
57th
Rush rate over expected
+1.3%
50th · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceBYUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
BYUoff +0.10 36thdef −0.04 33rd

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
7–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite5–2
Pick was the dog2–4
Home / away side4–2 / 3–4
Average gap to the close+2.3 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 13

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+6.018th
Full season+6.018th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Sep 6StanfordBYU −16.4−20.5W 27–361LOSS
Sat, Sep 20at East CarolinaBYU −7.0−6.5W 34–1369WIN
Sat, Sep 27at ColoradoBYU −2.6−6.5W 24–2164WIN
Fri, Oct 3West VirginiaBYU −22.2−19.5W 38–2478LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at ArizonaBYU −3.7−2.5W 33–2746WIN
Sat, Oct 18UtahBYU −0.7+4.0W 24–2154WIN
Sat, Oct 25at Iowa StateBYU +2.8+2.5W 41–2762LOSS
Sat, Nov 8at Texas TechBYU +12.0+13.5L 7–2942LOSS
Sat, Nov 15TCUBYU −1.7−3.0W 44–1349LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at CincinnatiBYU −4.2−2.5W 26–1457WIN
Sat, Nov 29UCFBYU −21.1−17.5W 41–2186WIN
Sat, Dec 6at Texas TechBYU +10.5+12.5L 7–3429LOSS
Sat, Dec 27Georgia TechBYU −6.6−3.5W 25–2151WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.