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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Clemson

6–6 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+4.6
Rank
45
Résumé
61
Our picks
6–6
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
7.3expected wins · finished 6–6
Bowl (6+)88%
9+ wins23%
11+ wins2%

6–6 against 7.3 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 5.9.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 45thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−1.3
6–6 vs 7.3
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+2
expected 0.0

Luck: +0.1 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 47th · +4.0 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+0.262nd
Offense play value−1.086th
Defense efficiency+2.425th
Defense play value+1.837th
Drive finishing+0.256th
Field position+0.443rd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion+0.06th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.5 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.6
86th
Havoc rate
10.9%
66th
Rush rate over expected
−7.7%
121st · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceCLEMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Clemsonoff +0.05 56thdef +0.03 64th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
6–6against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–4
Pick was the dog5–2
Home / away side1–5 / 5–1
Average gap to the close+3.2 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+1.265th
Full season+1.265th

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Sat, Aug 30LSUCLEM −1.1−3.5L 10–1743WIN
Sat, Sep 6TroyCLEM −25.5−29.5W 27–1652WIN
Sat, Sep 13at Georgia TechCLEM −4.2−3.0L 21–2454LOSS
Sat, Sep 20SyracuseCLEM −16.4−17.5L 21–3441WIN
Sat, Oct 4at North CarolinaCLEM −12.8−15.5W 38–1084LOSS
Sat, Oct 11at Boston CollegeCLEM −10.9−14.0W 41–1070LOSS
Sat, Oct 18SMUCLEM −1.1−3.5L 24–3543WIN
Sat, Nov 1DukeCLEM −6.8−4.0L 45–4652LOSS
Sat, Nov 8Florida StateCLEM −7.8−1.5W 24–1050WIN
Fri, Nov 14at LouisvilleCLEM +2.6+1.5W 20–1939LOSS
Sat, Nov 29at South CarolinaCLEM +3.3+2.5W 28–1449LOSS
Sat, Dec 27Penn StateCLEM +8.1−2.5L 10–2245WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.