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Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College · 2026 current page

Louisville

8–4 FBS · ACC · 2025
Rating
+8.3
Rank
29
Résumé
26
Our picks
8–4
Expected wins · what our pregame odds said the games were worth
8.1expected wins · finished 8–4
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins40%
11+ wins4%

8–4 against 8.1 expected wins. Second-order wins — the record their play deserved — put them at 8.8.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 29thAP NRFinal

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
3–3
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−0.1
8–4 vs 8.1
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+3
expected +4.5

Luck: −0.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 24th · +9.7 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.621st
Offense play value+0.460th
Defense efficiency+2.918th
Defense play value+2.332nd
Drive finishing−0.170th
Field position+1.511th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion+0.13rd

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −1.9 pts/game to results — ran cold; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+1.3
25th
Havoc rate
12.1%
30th
Rush rate over expected
−5.1%
107th · pass-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionPenn StateNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCUJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForceLOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisvilleoff +0.03 68thdef −0.09 19th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
8–4against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–3
Pick was the dog6–1
Home / away side2–4 / 6–0
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close8 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.441st
Full season+3.441st

Model ledger

2025 · our line against every result
DateOpponentOur lineCloseResultPerformancePick
Fri, Sep 5James MadisonLOU −14.5−15.5W 28–1454WIN
Sat, Sep 20Bowling GreenLOU −22.1−26.5W 40–1796WIN
Sat, Sep 27at PittsburghLOU −6.3−3.0W 34–2768WIN
Sat, Oct 4VirginiaLOU −10.9−6.5L 27–3062LOSS
Fri, Oct 17at MiamiLOU +7.2+10.5W 24–2144WIN
Sat, Oct 25Boston CollegeLOU −22.0−25.5W 38–2447WIN
Sat, Nov 1at Virginia TechLOU −9.9−10.5W 28–1660LOSS
Sat, Nov 8CaliforniaLOU −20.4−18.5L 26–2941LOSS
Fri, Nov 14ClemsonLOU −2.6−1.5L 19–2062LOSS
Sat, Nov 22at SMULOU +6.2+4.0L 6–3816WIN
Sat, Nov 29KentuckyLOU −5.8+1.5W 41–088WIN
Tue, Dec 23ToledoLOU −9.2−12.5W 27–2268WIN

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.